WorldCity Business Magazine

President's note: Monitoring the vote

by Ken Roberts

W e have a saying here at WORLDCITY , that our readers are more likely to know the name of the president of Brazil than the junior senator from Florida.

I have repeated this to many executives in charge of their companies’ Latin American operations and I know what follows: the look of trepidation and the squirm. They aren’t worried that I’ll ask about Lula that’s easy for them but that I’ll mention Sen. Mel Martinez.

It’s not that Florida politics are unimportant. Rather it’s that for most of our readers, Latin America, the Caribbean and the global economy are foremost in their thoughts.

As they are in ours.

So, while the election next month to replace two-term Gov. Jeb Bush (just so you know, Charlie Crist is the Republican candidate and Jim Davis the Democrat) is important, our readers are more likely to be watching a different vote. One that takes place on Oct. 22.

That’s when the citizens of Panama decide whether to begin a $5.2 billion expansion of the 92-year-old Panama Canal.

The global shipping industry has so outgrown the canal that ships are now described in terms of their size relative to the canal’s width. Panamax vessels are the maximum size that can squeeze through while post-Panamax vessels can only stare wistfully.

It’s clear that the canal’s capacity must be expanded. Much of the reason, of course, is because of Asia.

And within Asia, it is China that is the shipping force. The Beacon Council recently completed a China strategy. And it wasn’t so long ago that we reported on how China has supplanted Brazil as South Florida’s top import partner, largely due to imports into the Port of Miami.

Through July, the most recent trade figures available, the Miami Customs District’s imports from China rose 104 percent to $2.1 billion while recently dethroned Brazil’s tumbled 25 percent to $1.3 billion. The Miami Customs district includes airports and seaports from Key West to Fort Pierce.

Recent polls suggest that Panamanians will vote in favor of expanding their famous canal. Still, there are many critics who fear, among other things, that the project will be characterized by widespread corruption that will line the pockets of the powerful rather than benefiting the nation as a whole.

Among those critics is the recently retired chief engineer of the Panama Canal Authority. When the New York Times asked Tomas Doran if he feared a no’ vote’s effect on Panama’s economy, he replied: “I’ve heard all that, and I’m still voting no.’"

It should come as no surprise that here in Miami we have not one but two former ambassadors to Panama. Ambler Moss served when President Jimmy Carter agreed to turn control of the canal over to the Panamanians, and Simon Ferro served under President Bill Clinton when the transfer actually took place. Today both are attorneys working with Greenburg Traurig.

According to Moss: “The increase in world trade will soon exceed the Panama Canal’s capacity, despite the fact that the canal is more efficient today than it ever has been. To remain competitive, it needs to put through more ships and at a higher tonnage."

He adds: “Miami, a city which depends to a large degree on Western Hemisphere trade, certainly has an interest in the canal’s future.”

Certainly, pay attention to the governor’s race, since the next governor will be leading trade missions and promoting Florida as a global business hub. But also keep an eye on the vote of the Panamanian people because their decision will have an enormous impact on the economy of South Florida for years to come.

Contact: kroberts@worldcityweb.com