Statistics

U.S. trade passes $2 trillion through August, a record

October 25th, 2007

U.S. trade with the world surpassed $2 trillion in August, the first time it has passed that mark in the first two thirds of the year.

Nevertheless, imports in particular and two-way trade in general have slowed considerably in 2007, according to WorldCity analysis of the most recently released U.S. Census data.

Overall, U.S. trade increased at 6.6 percent through the first eight months of the year, and appears to be on a path to the slowest growth in perhaps a decade or longer.

Despite the slower growth, U.S. trade remains on a path to surpass $3 trillion in 2007, when annual figures are released in mid-February. The 2006 total trade figure was $2.9 trillion. Exports surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in 2006; imports will approach $2 trillion in 2007 but are not likely to surpass that milestone until at least 2008.

The slowing import growth, fueled by a host of factors, including downward pressure on the U.S. dollar in global markets and a housing slump, led to a rare decrease in the U.S. trade deficit, from $550 billion through the first eight months of 2006 to $520 billion this year.

August is an important month. It is the month when retailer bets on the Christmas holidays start showing up in the form of Asian imports hitting ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach and, increasingly ports like Savannah, New York, Seattle and San Francisco.

Through August, Chinese imports increased 14.6 percent to $205.1 billion, almost four times the national average of 3.8 percent. But other Asian nations were either flat in imports or showed declines, including Japan (-0.8 percent), South Korea (5.8 percent), Taiwan (-0.02 percent), Singapore (5.3 percent) and Malaysia (-10 percent).

Beyond China, which saw total trade increase $31.8 billion through the first eight months of the year, the fastest-growing countries in dollar terms are Canada at $10.9 billion, Germany at $9.1 billion and Mexico at $7.2 billion.

In percentage terms, among top trade partners, Switzerland, Spain, India, Austria and South Africa all showed growth well above average, as did Algeria and Belgium and China, to a lesser extent.

The fastest-growing Customs districts, looking at year over year growth in percentage terms, were three in the Southeastern United States New Orleans, Savannah and Charleston as well as Seattle. In dollar terms, New York, Los Angeles, Houston and New Orleans grew the fastest.

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