Statistics

With oil above $90 per barrel, crude and China play biggest role in deficit since 1992

October 30th, 2007

The U.S. trade imbalance with China and in crude oil are accounting for the greatest percentage of the deficit in 15 years, according to WorldCity analysis of the most recent Census data.

Through the first eight months of the year, the $149 billion crude oil deficit and the $163.8 billion deficit with China are accounting for 60.2 percent of the United States’ $519.5 billion deficit.

Over the course of the last 15 years, when considering annual data, the range has been a low of 36.1 percent in 1998 to a high of 67.3 percent in 1992.

The big change with oil has been, of course, the increase in price, with the close on Monday nearing $94 per barrel, an increase of almost 50 percent in 2007 alone.

The China story is due not to price but quantity a tremendous surge of imports, from toys to electronics to apparel.

As we approach an election year, there will be increasing discussion of China, of oil and of the trade deficit, said WorldCity President Ken Roberts.

While the combination of high oil prices and increasing Chinese imports are playing a more and more significant role in the U.S. trade deficit, they tend to overshadow the more complete story, which includes record exports. Those exports have been increasing for years, certainly, but a weak dollar makes U.S. products that much more attractive.

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