Statistics

Annual trade growth forecast to slow but numerous records still will fall

January 17th, 2008

U.S. trade with the world in 2007 will have grown at the slowest pace since 2003, when annual statistics are released next month, according to WorldCity projections of U.S. Census data.

But annual trade will have surpassed $3 trillion for the first time ever, on record exports and record imports.

Exports, which surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in 2006, surpassed that total through 11 months of the year, with a value of $1.06 trillion. Imports stood at $1.8 trillion through November, the most recent statistics available, but will almost certainly narrowly have missed $2 trillion in 2007.

The trade deficit will have declined for only the second time in the last 15 years. Through November, it stood at $730.9 billion. The record deficit, set almost annually for many years, stood at $817.3 billion at the end of 2006. The 2007 deficit will likely have been in the range of $800 billion, when the statistics are released.

The only other time the deficit has decreased since 1992 is in 2001, when it fell from $436.1 billion to $411.9 billion.
That year, total trade also fell, and it fell again in 2002 in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 al-Queda terrorist strikes on New York City and Washington, D.C.

Total U.S. trade began to recover in 2003, increasing 6.9 percent after having fallen 0.8 percent in 2002 and 6.5 percent in 2001. The next three years were buoyed by double-digit gains 15.5 percent in 2004, 12.7 percent in 2005 and 12.1 percent in 2006.

In 2007, the deficit will have fallen due largely to a lack of confidence in strength of the U.S. economy, which has resulted in the dollar falling to its lowest point against many of the world’s currencies in a generation. As the dollar falls, U.S. exports are relatively less expensive and U.S. imports are relatively more expensive.

The Seattle Customs district will be the first in the nation’s history to have a $15 billion annual surplus. Its numbers rise and fall with the fortunes of Boeing, and only two years ago, it ran a $2.9 billion deficit. As the global economy has taken hold, Boeing has received orders for planes from all over the world, from China to the United Arab Emirates. Seattle is the nation’s seventh-ranked Customs district.

The Miami Customs district will nearly match its record trade surplus of $11.5 billion set in 1997, before the collapse of Argentina and the rise of Chinese imports into the East Coast of the United States. Through the first 11 months of the year, the Miami Customs district surplus stood at $10.4 billion. Miami is the nation’s 13th-ranked Customs district in dollar terms.

Other developments of note:
 New York City will have come close to surpassing $200 billion in imports in 2007, a milestone Los Angeles surpass in 2005 for the first time. Los Angeles is the nation’s No. 1-ranked Customs district; New York is No. 2.
 Laredo will likely have narrowly missed surpassing $100 million in imports in 2007. The nation’s sixth-busiest Customs district, the border town is overwhelmingly dependent on its trade with Mexico.
 New Orleans will have slipped ahead of Laredo and Seattle almost certainly slipped by Chicago when the annual stats are released. Through 11 months, New Orleans stood at $158.3 billion in total trade and a No. 5 ranking while Laredo was at $155.1 billion. Seattle is in more of a horse race with Chicago for the No. 7 ranking. The difference between the two was less than one-half of one percent, or $644 million.
 New York will lead the nation in exports for the first time since 1994. In the intervening years, that distinction has gone first to Los Angeles and more recently Detroit. Through 11 months, New York’s exports stood at $113 billion, just shy of the annual record set by Detroit in 2006 of $113.7 billion. Detroit, which sits across Lake Michigan from Canada, the nation’s No. 1 trade partner, is the nation’s No. 3 Customs district.
 Los Angeles will narrowly miss being the third Customs district with more than $100 billion in exports. At 11 months, its total stood at $91 billion.
 The New Orleans Customs district is likely to have surpassed $50 billion in exports for the first time in 2007, or fall just shy. It is the nation’s fifth-leading Customs district due to its pivotal positioning on the Mississippi River.
 The Savannah Customs district, which includes the entire state of Georgia and is the nation’s 10th-ranked Customs district, will have surpassed $30 billion in exports for the first time in 2007 while Miami will have surpassed $40 billion for the first time. Both crossed those marks through November, respectively.
 New York will have become the second Customs district to surpass $300 billion in total trade when the annual statistics are released. Through November, its total stood at $296.9 billion.

Number of U.S. trade surpluses at 127 nations, highest since 1998 (02/21/2008)

U.S. trade breaks $3 trillion mark; first deficit decline in 15 years (02/15/2008)

Annual U.S. trade with a record 44 nations will exceed $10 billion (01/19/2008)

Annual trade growth forecast to slow but numerous records still will fall (01/17/2008)

U.S. exports to Putin's Russia growing far faster than national average (12/23/2007)

Baltimore, N.Y. among big gainers in exports (12/21/2007)

Aircraft, corn, gold exports growing rapidly (12/18/2007)

Slumping dollar means surging exports (11/13/2007)

With oil above $90 per barrel, crude and China play biggest role in deficit since 1992 (10/30/2007)

U.S. trade passes $2 trillion through August, a record (10/25/2007)

Exports, in GOP debate spotlight, continue brisk, record growth (10/09/2007)

U.S.-Burma trade vaporized in 2003 (09/30/2007)

Algeria, Vietnam among fastest-growing U.S. trade partners over five-year period (09/25/2007)

U.S. trade growth slowest in years (08/15/2007)

2nd U.S. TradeNumbers released (08/12/2007)

U.S. trade up and deficit down (07/13/2007)

1st Q: U.S. trade up slightly as import growth slows -- except with China (05/11/2007)

France, soon electing a new president, surpasses $10 billion in total trade (04/22/2007)

Handgun imports rise sharply, lead by Savannah, Miami, Chicago (04/17/2007)

U.S. trade rises a tepid 6 percent through February (04/16/2007)

South Korea car imports up 1,000% since 1992, but down last two years (04/10/2007)

It's a fact: Algeria, Angola, Chile, UAE, Austria are fastest-growing (04/10/2007)

U.S takes precedent-setting action against China in coated-paper case (04/02/2007)

Media weighs in on South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (04/02/2007)

South Korea takes big step toward $100 Billion Club (04/02/2007)

U.S. exports advance broadly, from airplanes to corn to tractors to gold (03/19/2007)

Annual Statistics: A quick review of the Top 10 U.S. trade partners (02/24/2007)

U.S. trade, exports, imports, deficit set new annual records (02/15/2007)

Annual statistics: Dallas among nation's fastest-growing districts (02/14/2007)

Seattle registers largest, and one of few, surpluses (02/14/2007)

DC is nation's fastest-growing Customs district for 2006 (02/14/2007)

Philadelphia falls just shy of $70 billion on rapid growth (02/13/2007)

Sneak peek at the annual trade statistic release (01/22/2007)

U.S. has trade surplus with 115 nations, deficit with 116 (11/03/2006)

U.S. trade growth at 14 percent through August (10/16/2006)

Exports to Afghanistan are zooming; led by aircraft, motor vehicles (10/02/2006)

Romania, Bulgaria seek EU status, both rank in Top 100 in U.S. trade (09/28/2006)

Trade with Muslim world growing faster than average (09/25/2006)

Annual Report: No. 17 Saudi Arabia - Quenching the oil thirst (09/15/2006)

New Orleans rebounding, one year after Katrina (08/27/2006)

Six-month report: U.S. trade increases 13 percent, with fast growth from red-hot Chile (08/24/2006)

Annual Report: No. 24 Switzerland - Swiss trade keeping time (07/26/2006)

Annual Report: No. 25 Australia- U.S. posts $8.4 billion surplus (07/26/2006)

Annual Report: No. 23 Hong Kong - U.S. expands trade surplus (07/25/2006)

Annual Report: No. 21 Israel - Glittering give-and-take (07/23/2006)

Annual Report: No. 20 India - Rising player on trade scene (07/22/2006)

Annual Report: No. 19 Thailand - Gains seen in tech products (07/21/2006)

Annual Report: No. 16 Singapore - U.S. sees growth in surplus (07/20/2006)

Annual Report: No. 18 Belgium - Diamonds, medicines lead trade (07/19/2006)

Annual Report: No. 15 Ireland - Chemicals, drugs drive exports (07/17/2006)