Trade Connections
13 March 2012
The cost of manufacturing products abroad and the shipping them to their destination, combined with renewed scrutiny on Chinese manufacturing could alter the face of global manufacturing, logistics and retail in the coming the years.
So argued F. Barry Lawrence, a professor of industrial distribution and director of the Global Supply Chain Laboratory at Texas A & M University, at WorldCity’s Trade Connections on Feb. 17.
That, today, is the situation many companies are facing. It starts, Lawrence, said when the “board of directors is watching CNN, and comes in and says ‘everyone is going to China,’ we should look at going to China.” From there a company visits China, and realizes outsourcing production to a third party is the most efficient way to start operations given the complexity of manufacturing in China.
That third party, however, “negotiates one to two percent net margins no western firm would even consider,” Lawrence added. With margins that tight, he added, producers are forced to squeeze the supply chain at every level.
“You get three or four rungs up the supply chain and you’re dealing with a firm that doesn’t speak English and cannot imagine they would be required to buy a more expensive paint that doesn’t look as good.”
With all of this going on it’s inevitable, Lawrence continued, that some manufacturing will come back to the U.S., Mexico and Central America. One way things may change is through postponement production: “Don’t finish the manufacturing until it’s right in front of the customer.”
Lawrence discussed how Dell Computers allowed buyers to customize their computers, within limit, if they gave the company about a week to ship it to them. This “dramatically decreased their inventory, then they turned to their distributors and said we want you to hold it, their cash cycle went negative and they put Compaq out of business.”
Along those lines, he also said companies could use China as a place to manufacture high density, undifferentiated products that consumers won’t ever see. “When you ship a washing machine across the Pacific you’re shipping a lot of air,” Lawrence said, “but those motors are dense, there’s no differentiation and the consumer never sees them, they don’t care.
“Make that in China, in high volume, and ship the simple product in dense form,” he added. One key aspect of manufacturing in China to remember is that is also becoming the world’s largest consumer market, in addition to already being the world’s largest manufacturer. Many companies have also made significant investments in their Chinese operations, and can’t afford to leave due to the losses they would sustain and the fact that it would become doubly difficult to re-enter the market.
“They don’t know how to penetrate China,” Lawrence said. “If you leave you’re leaving the world’s largest marketplace.
However, “it’s not going to be the world’s best marketplace because disposable income is a fraction of what it is in the U.S.,” he added.
Meanwhile, the potential for manufacturing to come back from China presents myriad opportunities to the Americas, particularly Central America, Mexico and Miami.
“Mexico gets it; they’re succeeding and they’ll continue to succeed,” he said, and “when the cartel violence subsides Mexico is going to be a significant force.
“If you don’t believe it count the number of car manufacturers around Mexico City,” he added.
Trade Connections is one of five event series organized by WorldCity to bring together executives on international trade and business. The quarterly event series is sponsored by Seaboard Marine, American Airlines Cargo, Flagler Development, Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami. The next Trade Connections event is June 8.



