Trade Connections

Sponsored by Seaboard Marine, Miami International Airport, American Airlines Cargo, the Port of Miami and Flagler Development.

The cost of manufacturing products abroad and the shipping them to their destination, combined with renewed scrutiny on Chinese manufacturing could alter the face of global manufacturing, logistics and retail in the coming the years.

So argued F. Barry Lawrence, a professor of industrial distribution and director of the Global Supply Chain Laboratory at Texas A & M University, at WorldCity’s Trade Connections on Feb. 17.

 

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Companies are beginning to realize the money they save on labor manufacturing in China is being offset by the cost of shipping their products around the world, argued Texas A & M's F. Barry Lawrence.
“I can tell you any company shipping product across the Pacific to the U.S. had better have 70 to 80 percent labor content in their product,” he argued, “If they don’t, they’re paying more to bring it here than they it costs to produce it here.”

 

That, today, is the situation many companies are facing. It starts, Lawrence, said when the “board of directors is watching CNN, and comes in and says ‘everyone is going to China,’ we should look at going to China.” From there a company visits China, and realizes outsourcing production to a third party is the most efficient way to start operations given the complexity of manufacturing in China.

That third party, however, “negotiates one to two percent net margins no western firm would even consider,” Lawrence added. With margins that tight, he added, producers are forced to squeeze the supply chain at every level.

“You get three or four rungs up the supply chain and you’re dealing with a firm that doesn’t speak English and cannot imagine they would be required to buy a more expensive paint that doesn’t look as good.”

With all of this going on it’s inevitable, Lawrence continued, that some manufacturing will come back to the U.S., Mexico and Central America. One way things may change is through postponement production: “Don’t finish the manufacturing until it’s right in front of the customer.”

Lawrence discussed how Dell Computers allowed buyers to customize their computers, within limit, if they gave the company about a week to ship it to them. This “dramatically decreased their inventory, then they turned to their distributors and said we want you to hold it, their cash cycle went negative and they put Compaq out of business.”

Along those lines, he also said companies could use China as a place to manufacture high density, undifferentiated products that consumers won’t ever see. “When you ship a washing machine across the Pacific you’re shipping a lot of air,” Lawrence said, “but those motors are dense, there’s no differentiation and the consumer never sees them, they don’t care.

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The audience peppered Lawrence with questions about what the future holds for a number of countries in the Americas, however manufacturing in Panama and Mexico appeared to have the brightest futures.

 

“Make that in China, in high volume, and ship the simple product in dense form,” he added. One key aspect of manufacturing in China to remember is that is also becoming the world’s largest consumer market, in addition to already being the world’s largest manufacturer. Many companies have also made significant investments in their Chinese operations, and can’t afford to leave due to the losses they would sustain and the fact that it would become doubly difficult to re-enter the market.

“They don’t know how to penetrate China,” Lawrence said. “If you leave you’re leaving the world’s largest marketplace.

However, “it’s not going to be the world’s best marketplace because disposable income is a fraction of what it is in the U.S.,” he added.

Meanwhile, the potential for manufacturing to come back from China presents myriad opportunities to the Americas, particularly Central America, Mexico and Miami.

“Mexico gets it; they’re succeeding and they’ll continue to succeed,” he said, and “when the cartel violence subsides Mexico is going to be a significant force.

“If you don’t believe it count the number of car manufacturers around Mexico City,” he added.

Trade Connections is one of five event series organized by WorldCity to bring together executives on international trade and business. The quarterly event series is sponsored by Seaboard Marine, American Airlines Cargo, Flagler Development, Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami. The next Trade Connections event is June 8.

 

 

 

 

The United States’ trade with the world has recovered the losses of the global economic meltdown, but how goods move and are financed is changing and will continue to do so in the future.

Dan Fisher, director of global trade finance for North America for TD Bank, outlined some of the recent changes in trade and trade finance and what may be on the horizon at WorldCity’s Trade Connections on Dec. 9.

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Export import companies are "looking for somebody to stand in between buyers and sellers to provide terms," said TD Bank's Dan Fisher.
Among them, he said, are a drop in U.S. imports of Canadian lumber, and a rerouting of that lumber to China, China becoming a consumer market and some manufacturing moving back to the U.S.

“Export markets that have dried up in one place are looking for new markets in new places,” Fisher said.

When the U.S. housing crisis took hold and construction came to a standstill. “Canadians went over to China to teach them how to build roofs out of lumber,” he continued. “Now China’s buying quite a bit of lumber to build their roofs instead of concrete.”

China has also been on a worldwide shopping spree buying up any commodities it can to support its growth.

“When I came in two years ago there was $650 million in credit limits for China,” Fisher continued. “Now it’s $1.1 billion.”

The importance of Asian trade at a the national level becomes increasingly obvious when you look at South Florida’s trade with the world, which is climbing to new heights while also seeing its share of the country’s trade as a whole drop.

“Part of the reason for that is we don’t do a whole of trade with Asia,” said WorldCity President and CEO Ken Roberts. The Miami Customs district, which stretches from Port St. Lucie to the keys, however, “is the only one that’s had a trade surplus for the last 20 years.”

The value of the district’s trade, at $82.75 billion through October, grew 2.06 percent faster that the U.S.’s total trade, which was worth $2.74 trillion. Compared to 2008, Miami’s trade has grown by 22.38 percent

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Carmen Taylor, who head American Airlines Cargo in Miami, asked if the recent corruption problems in Brazil are a cause for concern.
while the nation’s rose an anemic 4.32 percent.

That strength is credited to South Florida’s strong ties with Latin America, which fared better than many regions of the world and continues to perform well, though there are some concerns.

“Brazil is very heated right now,” Fisher said. They’ve got a great economy going on, they’re subject to inflation.”

Carmen Taylor, managing director for Latin America and the Caribbean for American Airlines Cargo, asked if “corruption is concern” given that six of members of President Dilma Rousseff’s cabinet have stepped down since she took office in January.

“Brazil is a developing country and it’s difficult [because it] has a lot of natural resources,” Fisher said. “Everyone’s got their eye on what you’re talking about but it’s nothing.”

Still, the majority of TD Bank’s trade finance is done “case by case” and evaluated based on the country the shipper is going to or coming from. Throughout Latin America the bank is active in Costa Rica, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile and Colombia, but is staying away from Venezuela. Florida seems as though it will continue to play an important part in the U.S.-Latin America relationship thanks to the close ties between the two regions.

“Lots of Florida trade is done on an open account,” Fisher said,” because trade is done among families or between someone and their home country and there’s that trust there.”

WorldCity’s Trade Connections quarterly event series is sponsored by Seaboard Marine, American Airlines Cargo, Flagler Development, Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami. The next Trade Connections event is Feb. 17.

Though the South Florida economy remains weakened by the recession, international trade, one of the region’s top economic drivers, is stronger than ever.

That was the message delivered by Tony Ojeda, executive director of Miami-Dade’s Office of Economic Development and International Trade. Ojeda kicked off WorldCity’s Trade Connections meeting on May 10, held in partnership with the Doral Business Council and its Signature Breakfast Series.

Tony Ojeda, representing Miami-Dade County, said trade's impact is too often overlooked
Tony Ojeda, representing Miami-Dade County, said trade's impact is too often overlooked
Though unemployment in Greater Miami remains above the national average, Ojeda noted that 2010 was a record year for total trade as $95.3 billion in imorts and exports moved through the Miami Customs district. That’s a 20.6 percent increase over 2009.

“We all know Miami as a tourist destination. But another important aspect is international trade, he said. “Many people in Miami-Dade County don’t even realize what international trade is doing for the community.”

And international trade is doing quite a bit, according to the 2011 Miami Trade Numbers which WorldCity released at the meeting.

WorldCity President Ken Roberts, who also moderated the panel discussion, noted that the Miami Customs district was No. 13 going into recession, but has moved up to No. 11.

“That’s primarily due to one reason: Latin America doesn’t have a mortgage market,” Roberts said, referring to problems with the U.S. economy that were tied to excessive lending. Latin America’s appetite for U.S. exports, he said, has remained strong.

Trade with Brazil, once again Miami’s top partner, rose 20 percent to $13.39 billion. Trade with No. 3 partner Switzerland shot up 46.7 percent to $5.41 billion on the strength of a 56 percent rise of scrap of precious metal exports.

And, in the wake of Haiti’s earthquake in January 2010, total trade with the recovering country jumped 35.4 percent to $1.13 billion. The sharp rise in aid exports bumped Haiti up to the No. 24 slot, Roberts noted.

The event was held at the InterContinental Hotel in Doral. With its many warehouses, logistics companies and proximity to Miami International Airport, Doral was a perfect place to discuss international trade, Roberts told the audience.

“This is ground zero. This is where it happens,” he said.

 

Aeropost International's Jim Fendell announced the company was expanding its warehouse space eightfold
Aeropost International's Jim Fendell announced the company was expanding its warehouse space eightfold
Joining the panel discussion were Jim Fendell, founder, president and CEO of AeroPost International Services; Richard Armellini, president of Armellini Express Lines West Coast Division, and; Chris Meiser, VP of Operations for Avnet Technology Solutions, Latin America and Caribbean.

 

Armellini’s company is the largest floral carrier in the United States specializing in temperature-controlled shipments and a longtime fixture at Miami International Airport, where about 80 percent of all fresh-cut flowers enter the United States.

Armellini said that South Florida’s strength in international business rests on its unique culture and ties to Latin America. That is why the region will remain strong as other cities look to cut into growing Latin American markets. He said he has been contacted by a host of cities interested in the flower market, from Pittsburgh to Dallas.

“You can fly an airplane anywhere. It’s the culture you can’t pick up and move,” he said.

Armellini imports flowers from Colombia and Ecuador, moving an average of 100 truckloads each week in 37 states.

 

Chris Meiser said Avnet does more than $1 billion in annual sales in Latin America
Chris Meiser said Avnet does more than $1 billion in annual sales in Latin America
Miami is also the ideal place for Avnet to run its Latin American technology parts distribution operation, Meiser said.

 

“The majority of our business comes from Miami because this is where the freight forwarders are,” he explained. “That triangle between the seaport, the airport and the freight forwarders makes this key for trade with Latin America.”

Avnet’s Miami office oversees $1 billion in annual business, Meiser said.

Fendell said his company, AeroPost, gets 40-44 percent of its business from orders placed on Amazon.com. Essentially, it offers online shoppers in Latin America a less expensive way to get packages – with high-tech products like computers, cell phones and laptops a common purchase – delivered to them, since “door-to-door” using overnight couriers can be expensive.

Business has been so good that AeroPost is planning to move from its current 38,000-square-foot Doral warehouse to a warehouse about eight times larger in the Blue Lagoon area, just south of Miami International Airport, Fendell told the audience. It is also taking on a venture partner to help capitalize the company for rapid growth.

Though Miami’s international business is going strong, the panelists said that the region can’t afford to take this for granted.

Ojeda, of the county’s international trade organizations OEDIT, said it would help if the Unites States were to pass long-delayed free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, Miami’s No. 2 and No. 16 trading partners, respectively.  The community needs to make sure that the Port of Miami tunnel and dredging projects get done in order to accommodate the expected spike in cargo when the Panama Canal expansion brings super-sized ships in 2014, he said.

 

Richard Armellini said the flower company bearing his families' name is constantly asked to open in other markets
Richard Armellini said the flower company bearing his families' name is constantly asked to open in other markets
Significant railroad connectivity to the seaport – currently being forwarded by Florida East Coast Railway – would also keep Miami strong, Armellini noted.

 

“It’s going to help tremendously,” he said.

Meiser, Fendell and Roberts all agreed that bolstering infrastructure is crucial to reducing congestion and lubricating the gears of international trade.

Still, “the view from 30,000 feet” looks great, Roberts said. While other regions import more than they export, that’s not the case in Miami, he noted. Both imports and exports grew last year – 23.5 percent and 18.9 percent, respectively.

In 2011, Roberts predicted that Miami’s international trade will exceed the $100 billion mark for the first time. After that, the sky’s the limit.

WorldCity’s Trade Connections quarterly event series is sponsored by Seaboard Marine, American Airlines Cargo, Flagler Development, Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami. The next Trade Connections event is Sept. 16.

 

Despite rising trade between Costa Rica and the United States, regulatory pressures, consumer demand and the rapidly changing global economy are forcing companies across the supply chain to rethink the way they do business.

By Zachary Fagenson
Managing Editor
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“There is a constant pressure on the [shipping] cost and obviously that goes into trying to be as competitive as possible and keep fruit shippers happy,” said David Ross, executive vice president and director of SeaFreight Agencies at WorldCity’s Trade Connections on Sept. 16.

The event also launched WorldCity’s first-ever Costa Rica TradeNumbers publication, which examined the nearly $14 billion worth trade between the U.S. and the Central American nation in 2010. Of Costa Rica’s top

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Cargo carriers are continually under pressure to maintain heightened security and tigh schedules, said SeaFreight's David Ross (center).
five exports to the U.S. in 2010, avocados, pineapples and mangos, tracked together, accounted for $424.62 million and ranked No. 4 while banana and plantain exports ranked No. 5 valued at $343.49 million.

With so much of Costa Rica’s trade depending on agriculture, issues like food security, shipping times, fuel costs, ship efficiencies and customs clearances all pose a challenge to getting fresh produce on the shelves of U.S. stores.

Ross said the Port of Jacksonville has become an attractive place to bring in produce while the company has also been looking at adding stops in the Caribbean to increase the dollar value of each shipment. At the same time he said “one thing we’re focused on is reducing transit time from 10 days to five days,” and “looking for ships that can give you efficiency of speed, are fuel friendly and at the same time… balance that with having to get the product to market.”

On top of that he said SeaFreight has also started a trucking division to have greater control of the shipping process so it can ensure customers that their shipments will arrive on time.

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Regulators are increasingly scrutinizing banks' loans, and who is receiving them, said BICSA's Tony Bejarano.
“You’ve got to do it yourself,” Ross said, “you cannot hire third-party vendors.”

When it comes to cutting costs, producers in Costa Rica and Central America “have been doing this for 100 years,” said Marvin List, a produce industry consultant and partner at PuraVida Farms, and have been experimenting with ways to maximize production and squeeze more produce onto ships, but there are some factors they can’t control.

The “safety and security of the moving of the goods has a cost impact [that] comes from inside the organization and the exporting country,” List said. In the “U.S. we’re trying to protect of food security supply chain and carriers are required to do a whole lot.

“A lot of times… you can spend a lot of money on food safety and security and you’re food isn’t safer or more secure,” he added.

“The smugglers know our schedule and all shipping lines’ schedules and they understand vessels and aircraft are the method to move their product as well,” said Ross of SeaFreight. “I can’t tell you how much time goes into the security of the container, the security of the vessel.”

At the same time the cost of producing and moving goods has risen simply due to currency fluctuations.

“About two years ago [the exchange rate] was 600 colóns person dollar, today it’s 500,” said J. Antonio Bejarano, general manager for Banco Internacional de Costa Rica. “It’s good from the outside, but for the exporter who’s been affected quite a bit they cannot do anything with their products and they have to be competitive.”

The exchange rates effects everything from the prices of ships, which David Ross said rose from about $8,000 a day last year to anywhere between $14,000 and $15,000 per day today, to a farm’s profitability.

“The strengthening of foreign currency against the dollar has caused exporters huge headaches, million-dollar headaches,” said List. A “500 hectare grower says ‘my labor costs did not change and just on the exchange rate I’m upside down a million dollars a year.’”

Outside of traditional shipping and logistics companies, supermarkets like Kroger’s and discount retail giants Target and Walmart are looking to bypass produce importers and are going straight to the source.

Though that strategy looks like it may cut carriers out of the supply chain, it may provide a different kind of opportunities.

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A pineapple can take up to 15 months to grow and will only produce one fruit in its lifetime, but stores want them on shelves in only a few days, said produce industry consultant Marvin List.
“The retail side wants a straight line supply. Well guess what? The production in the field isn’t a straight line and whether we like there are transportation issues,” said List. Multinationals are “geographically diversified so if we have a hurricane or a freeze they’re usually able to make up for those dips in the supply chain.”

Logistics companies with ships and assets across the region ready to pick up a container to fill a supermarket’s quota for the week will be the ones to benefit.

“We then become the carrier side or the logistics side of that,” said Ross of SeaFreight. “It’s true independence.”

WorldCity’s Trade Connections quarterly event series is sponsored by Seaboard Marine, American Airlines Cargo, Flagler Development, Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami. The next Trade Connections event is Dec. 9.

The expansion of the Panama Canal will be a “game-changer” for world trade, and the U.S. east coast will gain by hosting giant ships that will soon be able to cross the passageway from Asia.

The biggest winners will be those coastal areas that can dredge their ports deep enough to hold the megaships and then, efficiently transport their freight by land to other U.S. regions.

But other east coast areas will gain too, as the giant ships displace smaller vessels to shallower ports.

Those were among the key conclusions at a special WorldCity Trade Connections event held with The Realtors Commercial Alliance of Miami and attended by more than 200 people on Feb. 18.

“There will be winners and bigger winners, as opposed to winners and losers” from the canal expansion slated for completion in 2014, said Los-Angeles-based John Carver, who leads real estate giant Jones Lang Lasalle’s global port and airport practice.

New business will extend far beyond seaports, too. As cargo volumes rise, companies will need warehouses to store the goods; offices for employees handling increased trade; plus new links with trucks, railroads, brokers and others to move the freight from ports inland. That means ample opportunities for real estate, panelists told a standing-room-only crowd.

The Port of Miami is seeking $75 million in federal funds to complete financing to dredge its channel to 50 feet to welcome the mega-ships. But the seaport faces hurdles to funding in deficit-strapped Washington DC, said Eric Olafson, the Miami port’s cargo development manager.

Miami Port Director Bill Johnson is undeterred in his push for cash, convinced that the dredging project can spur 33,000 new jobs in the Miami-Dade area. “He’s threatened to chain himself to the White House fence to get his money,” Olafson said, prompting chuckles from the crowd.

(Update: Three weeks after the event, Florida Gov. Rick Scott promised to provide the funding shortfall for the project after it failed to make the Obama administration budget.)

A bit of history helps explain why the canal expansion represents such a revolution.

The Panama Canal opened in 1914 as an engineering marvel, linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and slashing transit times for U.S. Navy ships and other vessels that no longer needed to round South America to cross between the seas.

But in recent decades, ships have soared in size, and many no longer fit in the existing canal. These megaships departing Asian ports, often referred to as post-Panamax vessels, since they are wider than the maximum that can traverse the canal, now drop off their freight on the U.S. West Coast and send it by train or truck cross-country, reducing potential business for Panama and U.S. east coast ports, said Rodolfo R. Sabonge, vice president of market research and analysis for the Panama Canal Authority.

The freighters are getting bigger because companies can reduce the cost of carrying each of the metal shipping containers they haul. Giant vessels can slash costs for Asia-U.S. transit by as much as $90 per shipping container, representing “millions of dollars in savings for larger ships,” Sabonge said.

The world’s biggest freighters today can carry about 15,000 “boxes,” containers that are generally 40-foot in length and easily transferred to rail and tractors for trucking. South Korean’s are large ship builders and one is now planned that can handle 18,000 TEUs – 20-foot equivalent units, the standard measure in the industry.

That monster will hold enough containers that end to end would stretch 66 miles. It’s four times bigger than what the ships that now fit through the Panama Canal, Sabonge said.

To handle those mega-ships, Panama is investing more than $4 billion to add a wider and deeper third-lane to the canal. Building is “on schedule and under budget,” Sabonge said. The recession helped reduce costs, as construction companies were eager for new work and prices for building materials fell.

“At the end of the day, the project is going to be coming in at least 20 percent less than budget,” Sabonge said in a detailed presentation that featured photos of building sites and spreadsheets on costs.

Numerous U.S. east coast ports are vying to welcome the giant freighters that will soon cross the canal, with some still seeking funds to dredge to 50 feet. Miami could be the southernmost seaport to host the mega-ships.

“New York/New Jersey is ready. Norfolk (in Virginia, a U.S. Navy installation) is ready. Savannah and Charleston have a big debate about which is going to get the money, but from there on south, there is nobody,” Sabonge said. “The one that can do it first is there to stay…. It really becomes a matter of politics.”

The canal expansion comes as South Florida set a new record for trade in 2010, topping $95 billion in goods shipped in and out to international ports. This year, South Florida’s trade with the world should top $100 billion, as Brazil and other key Latin American partners buy more cell phones, jet engines and high-tech goods shipped from greater Miami, said WorldCity President Ken Roberts.

Rising trade already is boosting demand for warehouses and logistics in South Florida – even before the canal is expanded, according to Arcelio Girard, general manager of FTZ World Services, which runs the Miami Free Zone, and Gary Goldfarb, executive vice president of logistics provider WTDC.

Yet hosting the giant ships that will soon cross the canal represents “a once in a lifetime opportunity” to send cargo and jobs soaring in South Florida, said Port of Miami manager Olafson. With Miami dredging complete, “this community stands to benefit in the billions of dollars.”

Trade Connections is one of seven event series that WorldCity organizers to bring together executives on international business topics. The trade series is sponsored by shipping company Seaboard Marine, Port of Miami, American Airlines Cargo and Miami-Dade County Aviation.

The next Trade Connections event is set for May 10.

 

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